Wells Fargo Championship: Odds, predictions, value picks for next PGA Tour event

For the first time in his PGA Tour career, Wyndham Clark will arrive at a golf course as the defending champion.

He broke through at the Wells Fargo Championship a year ago, besting Xander Schauffele by four shots at the Quail Hollow Club. The following month, Clark went on to win the U.S. Open at the Los Angeles Country Club.

His most recent triumph came at Pebble Beach in February.

If not for Scottie Scheffler’s remarkable performances at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, The Players Championship, The Masters, and the RBC Heritage, one could make the case that Clark has had the most impressive stretch of golf over the past 12 months.

But luckily for Clark—and the rest of this limited field—Scheffler will not compete this week. He and his wife Meredith are eagerly awaiting the birth of their first child.

With the World No. 1 not in the field, the Wells Fargo odds were adjusted accordingly.

Wells Fargo Championship Odds:

Here are the current odds for players to win, provided by DraftKings:

• Rory McIlroy +800
• Xander Schauffele +1100
• Ludvig Åberg +1200
• Wyndham Clark +1800
• Viktor Hovland +2200
• Tommy Fleetwood +2200
• Patrick Cantlay +2200
• Max Homa +2200
• Collin Morikawa +2200
• Sahith Theegala +2800
• Matt Fitzpatrick +2800
• Hideki Matsuyama +2800
• Justin Thomas +3000
• Jordan Spieth +3000

Photo by David Jensen/Getty Images

Wells Fargo Championship Predictions

With no Scheffler, is this a wide-open tournament?

Maybe. Either way, this event is a perfect tune-up for next week’s PGA Championship. Quail Hollow Club, the host of this week’s Wells Fargo Championship, is one of the more challenging courses the tour visits each year, requiring precision from tee to green.

Funny enough, the club will host the PGA Championship again in 2025, eight years after Justin Thomas won his first PGA title at Quail Hollow in 2017.

Nevertheless, big hitters, who can also find plenty of greens, tend to do well here. Accuracy is also a must.

Rory McIlroy’s Personal Playground

The only winner of this tournament three times, Rory McIlroy loves competing at Quail Hollow.

His most recent victory here came in 2021, when he bested Abraham Ancer by a shot thanks to a final round 3-under 68. McIlroy relied on his putter that week, ranking third in strokes gained putting.

The Northern Irishman also won here in 2010 and 2015, with the former being his first career PGA Tour win. McIlroy shot a final round 9-under 62 to win the tournament, a course record that stood until 2015, when he bested that with a 10-under 61 during the third round. McIlroy won by seven that week.

Photo by Eston Parker/Getty Images

This year, McIlroy arrives as the favorite, and understandably so. Fresh off his 25th career PGA Tour win at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, McIlroy is rounding into form as we approach the meat of major championship season.

The odds reflect that, too. McIlroy’s steep price of a top-10 finish does not return any value at -110, so we like him to finish in the top 5 at +190.

Canadian Contingent Continues to Succeed

Canadian Taylor Pendrith closed out his first career PGA Tour victory in dramatic fashion this past week, thanks to Ben Kohles’ heartbreaking bogey on the 72nd hole.

As such, Pendrith gained entry into this week’s field and next week’s PGA Championship, a major step for his budding career.

But Pendrith is not the only Canadian that has played well as of late. Nick Taylor won the WM Phoenix Open in February, Corey Conners has not missed a cut this season, and Mackenzie Hughes is trending in the right direction.

Yet, of that group, we like Conners to play well at Quail Hollow once again.

Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

Last year, Conners tied for eighth at the Wells Fargo Championship, carding under-par rounds on all four days. He hit the green in regulation 76.4% of the time, which ranked fourth in the field—not a surprise given his exquisite ball-striking abilities.

Conners ranks fourth in strokes gained approaching the green and third in greens in regulation on tour this season. He also finds plenty of fairways, doing so at 68.73% of the time, which is well above the tour average.

Considering this, we like Conners to improve his performance from a season ago and finish within the top 5 at Quail Hollow at +1100.

Alex Noren will fly under the radar into another top-10 finish

Perhaps the most underrated player on the PGA Tour this season, 41-year-old Swede Alex Noren has played in 10 events, finishing in the top 25 on seven occasions.

His best finish came at last week’s CJ Cup Byron Nelson, where he shot a final round 6-under 65 to finish in solo third.

Photo by Aric Becker/Getty Images

The stats reflect his strong play this season, too. Noren ranks 6th in total strokes gained and second in greens in regulation percentage, trailing only Scheffler. He is also first in scrambling percentage, saving par nearly 75% of the time when he misses greens.

The only knock on Noren is that he ranks 145th on the PGA Tour in total driving distance, which could prove difficult at Quail Hollow, a course that measures nearly 7,600 yards.

Still, Noren has too many things going on not to consider him. We like him to record his third top 10 of the season at a price of +800.

Wells Fargo Championship Longshot Pick

Before the 2024 Masters Tournament, Sepp Straka, the first Austrian-born player to represent Europe in the 2023 Ryder Cup, could not find any consistency in his game.

Four missed cuts and two top-20 finishes at The Sentry and The Players had him teetering all over the place.

But something clicked at Augusta National. He tied for 16th that week then recorded his best finish of the season at the RBC Heritage, tying for fifth.

Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

Straka then finished in a tie for 11th at the Zurich Classic, playing alongside Brice Garnett.

After an off week, the former Georgia Bulldog arrives at Quail Hollow fresh and ready to contend again at a major championship venue. He ranks second on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy percentage, finding fairways at nearly 80% of the time.

He also has found 68.82% of the greens this season, which ranks 36th on tour.

Even though he missed the cut here a year ago, we believe Straka’s accuracy and above-average ball-striking can lead him to his first PGA Tour victory of the season. At +6000, the Austrian is worth the longshot.

Wells Fargo Championship Winner

Of those players without a PGA Tour victory in 2024, nobody has played better than Xander Schauffele, who ranks third in total strokes gained this season.

We believe his oh-so-close narrative changes this week, with Schauffele emerging victorious at Quail Hollow. He ranks 10th in strokes gained off the tee and is 27th in strokes gained approaching the green—both solid attributes for success on this tough golf course.

Getty Images

He has played well on this course, too. Schauffele finished solo second at Quail Hollow a year ago, which included a 7-under 64 during his third round. He also tied for 14th in 2021.

The question becomes if he can make some putts, as he routinely puts himself in the best of positions. He tied for second at The Players and finished solo eighth at The Masters, but if he could have had a few more putts drop, those solid performances may have turned into memorable wins.

Alas, we believe that Schauffele does just that this week. He arrives with the second-lowest odds at +1000 behind McIlroy, and will gallop into Kentucky full of confidence for the PGA Championship.

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Jack Milko is a golf staff writer for SB Nation’s Playing Through. Be sure to check out @_PlayingThrough for more golf coverage. You can follow him on Twitter @jack_milko as well.