8 NBA playoff teams left standing, ranked by championship chances

The second round of the 2024 NBA Playoffs began before the first round ended, which means our final-8 rankings drop with one series already underway. The Minnesota Timberwolves shocked the Denver Nuggets by stealing Game 1 on the road behind the electric two-way play of Anthony Edwards. What felt like the best series of the second round before it began is already living up to the hype.

The first round of the playoffs gave us several superstar-making performances, with Edwards against the Phoenix Suns, Jalen Brunson against the 76ers, and Tyrese Maxey against the Knicks all leveling up on the biggest stage. Who can raise their game again in the second round? The answer will go a long way to determining the NBA’s final four teams this season.

Here’s how we’d rank the last eight teams standing in the 2024 NBA Playoffs by their chances of ultimately winning the championship.

8. Cleveland Cavaliers

Good news: the Cavs badly wanted to win a series this year after getting embarrassed in the first round last season, and they did it by wiping away an 18-point deficit in Game 7 against the Orlando Magic. Bad news: the mighty Boston Celtics are up next, and the Cavs are a massive underdog heading into the series. Donovan Mitchell was sensational against Orlando, which he needed to be because Jarrett Allen was hurt, Darius Garland and Evan Mobley struggled a bit offensively, and the role players couldn’t hit shots. To seriously compete against Boston, all of that is going to have to flip. The Celtics won’t have injured center Kristaps Porzingis for the series, but it would still be a shock if Cleveland can take more than one game off them.

7. Indiana Pacers

The Pacers advanced past the Milwaukee Bucks sans injured superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo in round one, but they didn’t exactly look convincing doing it. The biggest problem is Tyrese Haliburton still hasn’t returned to brilliant pre-All-Star break levels since sustaining a hamstring injury. Getting Haliburton back in peak form is priority No. 1 against the Knicks in round two, but even if that happens it’s hard to see how Indiana matches New York’s physicality. The Knicks should crush the Pacers on the offensive glass. Indiana’s super fast pace and sky-high three-point volume give them a chance to compete if the shooters get hot, but this series feels like an uphill battle from the start for the Pacers.

6. Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic finally got past the Los Angeles Clippers in the playoffs, and the fact that he didn’t even play his best game is strangely encouraging for Dallas. Doncic still averaged nearly 30 points per game in the series, but he struggled to score efficiently, with his true shooting percentage falling from 61 percent in the regular season to 51 percent in six games against LA. It didn’t matter because this feels like the most complete team the Mavs have built around Doncic yet. Kyrie Irving has been unreal as a scorer and shooter (45 percent from three in round one), P.J. Washington and Derrick Jones add a little more length and athleticism than this team usually has, and the centers are great lob threats. With the Thunder waiting in round two, Dallas will have to overcome the loss of Maxi Kleber after their small ball center was ruled out for the series with injury. How centers Dereck Lively and Daniel Gafford fare against a thin but skilled OKC front line could determine the series.

Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images

5. New York Knicks

The vibes around the Knicks haven’t been this good since the ‘90s. New York outlasted the 76ers in six games in an instant classic first round series, and deserve to be a strong favorite to reach the conference finals with the Pacers matchup looming. Jalen Brunson seemingly made the leap from star to superstar after a dominant first round series that saw him drop three 40-point games in a row to close out Philly. This Knicks team is incredibly tough, organized, and resilient under head coach Tom Thibodeau. The Knicks could start to run out of bodies soon with Julius Randle and Bojan Bogdanovic suffering season-ending injuries, but they should still have a big edge in physicality against the Pacers as the No. 1 offensive rebounding team in the league. Enjoy the ride, Knicks fans, because it hasn’t been this good in a long time.

4. Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder swept the New Orleans Pelicans sans Zion Williamson in round one. OKC had plenty to be encouraged about during the series, especially that their three-point shooting percentage — No. 1 during the regular season — maintained with the top mark of any team in the first round. A second round matchup against the Mavericks will be a bigger test for the Thunder defense, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams will likely have an easier time on offense without lockdown defenders like Herb Jones to deal with. The Thunder’s biggest vulnerability is rebounding — it will be fascinating to see if Dallas can take advantage of it now that they can’t play small anymore with Maxi Kleber’s injury. This series will have to be a national coming out party for SGA and Williams against Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving to advance. Don’t discount the Thunder just because of their youth and lack of experience — with a five-out offense and tough defense, this team has a formula to keep winning series.

3. Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves looked like a team ready for a championship push in their Game 1 victory against the Nuggets. Concerns about Minnesota’s offense — which finished No. 16 in the regular season — look silly now with Anthony Edwards playing like young Kobe Bryant. The 22-year-old Edwards will need to continue his extremely tough shot-making for the Wolves to win this series, but Minnesota’s defense gives it a high-floor to compete every night. It’s no coincidence that this Wolves roster feels specifically engineered to matchup with Denver: former Nuggets GM Tim Connelly, now in Minnesota, knew what he was doing by getting so much length to throw at both Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. The Wolves will need a secondary scoring star next to Edwards if they’re going to match buckets with Denver for three more wins, and that burden falls on Karl-Anthony Towns. If KAT can avoid foul trouble and keep the offense moving, Minnesota has a good chance to win this series and win the championship.

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2. Denver Nuggets

The matchup with the Timberwolves felt like Denver’s biggest challenge going back to last season’s championship run even before Minnesota stole Game 1 on their home court. The Wolves are gigantic at every position outside of point guard, and have a burgeoning superstar in Edwards who doesn’t just get buckets — he defends Jamal Murray well, too. Murray hasn’t looked like himself since suffering a calf injury after the All-Star break despite two game-winners in the first round against the Lakers. LA didn’t have any standout point-of-attack defenders to throw at him in round one, while Minnesota has three good ones in Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. The Wolves have a lot going for them in this matchup, but the Nuggets still have the best player in the world in Nikola Jokic. This immediately becomes a legacy series for Jokic if he can solve the many problems Minnesota presents. I would have picked Nuggets in 7 before the series began, and I’ll stick with it even in a 1-0 hole.

1. Boston Celtics

I haven’t had the Celtics at No. 1 in these rankings all year despite a dominant 64-win regular season. Boston’s crunch-time offense is still worrisome, and now they have a Kristaps Porzingis calf injury to deal with. Still, with Murray’s injury lingering, the Nuggets are now suddenly more vulnerable, and the Celtics feel like they would be a prohibitive favorite against anyone but Denver. It’s hard to win a championship without a true top-5 player, but Boston has worked around that by having the strongest starting lineup 1-5 in the league. The best way to win a title without a top-line superstar is by being really good every year and hoping to catch some luck. The Celtics have been in at least the conference finals in five of the last seven years, and this is their best team yet. If Porzingis can get ready by the Eastern Conference Finals, Boston is sitting pretty as it watches the slugest in the West.